‘This is a real cliff’: Cuts loom as Illinois lawmakers can’t agree on transit reform, revenue

For months, the Regional Transportation Authority has warned of massive service cuts if the Illinois General Assembly fails to rescue transit from a $771 million “fiscal cliff” in 2026, the result of federal COVID-19 aid drying up.

On May 31, the Senate passed a bill with reforms and funding but the House balked and the legislative session ended with transit issues unresolved.

That means 40% reductions to Metra, Pace and CTA trains and buses, right?

Maybe, maybe not. Let’s unpack the knowns and unknowns.

How would this unfold?

Taking Metra as an example, the commuter railroad faces a projected $220.8 million shortfall in 2026, about 20% of this year’s operating budget.

The crisis could shrink daily trains by 50% on the popular BNSF Line alone, the RTA estimates. Four out of eight CTA train lines would see service suspensions, and Pace would cease weekend buses.

Because of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which requires that minority and low-income riders aren’t disproportionately impacted by changes, agencies need to start planning cuts now and holding public hearings within a few months.

Can’t you just cut the least busy trains or emptiest buses? That’s also subject to federal laws.

What will the House do?

“We will continue to meet through the summer, and work toward the goal of significant transit reform so we can ultimately fund a system that works for everyone,” said Democratic state Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado of Chicago, a key player in the transit debate this session.

Democratic state Rep. Mary Beth Canty of Arlington Heights thinks it’s likely House members find consensus on governance reforms. Those include replacing the RTA with a more powerful Northern Illinois Transit Authority, which would control funding and create a unified fare system.

“Then what we have to do is start talking through all the funding opportunities. There are going to be some that are OK for folks, but we want to make sure we’re not causing unnecessary harm to the residents of Illinois,” Canty said.

Insiders predict the issue may come down to the fall veto session, which may be a little dicey.

“This is a real cliff. This is a real crisis; we need this resolved ASAP,” Senate Transportation Committee Chairman Ram Villivalam said.

Will Republicans help?

Senate Republicans all voted against a transit reform bill with some controversial taxes or fees, and some Democrats joined them.

Now that it’s June, legislative rules require a supermajority to pass bills.

GOP state Rep. Brad Stephens of Rosemont said Republicans support transit and should be included in negotiations. But with some revenue proposals in the bill, such as extending Chicago’s real estate transfer tax to the suburbs, “we’ll never get any Republicans to vote for that.”

As for a controversial $1.50 statewide fee on online retail and food deliveries, “I may be able to support a certain portion of that but maybe not all of it,” Stephens said.

He noted the lion’s share of the 2026 fiscal cliff falls to the CTA. “Why aren’t we talking about other things, like video gaming terminals in Chicago?”

One other option is raising fares. It’s estimated a moderate fare increase that would not drive riders away could generate about $50 million.

Passengers weigh in

Longtime Arlington Heights commuter James Costello said, “I’m guessing that there will be an 11th-hour bailout, as has been the case for many, many years in similar commuter rail-funding situations.

“Midterm elections are coming up in November, 2026, and the folks in Springfield will likely figure this all out well before then.”

“I’m not worried, yet,” said Milwaukee District North rider Chris Coughlin of Libertyville, who had some funding ideas.

“What if they offered WiFi for a small charge, like $5 bucks a month? My cell service isn’t bad, but I’d love to have WiFi that’s good on the train.”

Or resurrecting Bar Cars, which Metra retired years ago? “I think there’s revenue streams that they might explore,” Coughlin said.

Got a suggestion on how Metra could raise funds or save money? Drop an email to mpyke@dailyherald.com.